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15 of 15 matches with xG: 53 goals from 42.8 xG (1.24 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York City FC 0–1 New York Red Bulls | 2.30–1.40 | 58% · 20% · 23% | Won against the xG: New York Red Bulls |
| San Jose Earthquakes 2–2 LAFC | 1.11–0.36 | 55% · 33% · 12% | Draw against the xG: San Jose Earthquakes had 55% |
| CF Montreal 0–2 Columbus Crew | 0.47–0.92 | 18% · 37% · 45% | Win in line with xG for Columbus Crew |
| New England Revolution 4–2 Orlando City SC | 1.74–1.34 | 47% · 23% · 30% | Win in line with xG for New England Revolution |
| DC United 1–2 Charlotte | 2.85–0.90 | 77% · 14% · 9% | Won against the xG: Charlotte |
| Minnesota United FC 2–3 LA Galaxy | 1.88–1.59 | 45% · 22% · 33% | Close call, LA Galaxy won |
| Houston Dynamo 2–2 FC Cincinnati | 1.20–2.85 | 13% · 15% · 71% | Draw against the xG: FC Cincinnati had 71% |
| Sporting Kansas City 3–4 Philadelphia Union | 1.01–0.65 | 43% · 34% · 23% | Won against the xG: Philadelphia Union |
| FC Dallas 0–0 Austin | 1.78–0.26 | 75% · 20% · 5% | Draw against the xG: FC Dallas had 75% |
| St. Louis City SC 3–1 Toronto FC | 2.54–1.08 | 69% · 17% · 14% | Win in line with xG for St. Louis City SC |
| Colorado Rapids 3–3 Seattle Sounders | 1.65–0.95 | 54% · 25% · 22% | Draw against the xG: Colorado Rapids had 54% |
| Real Salt Lake 0–3 Vancouver Whitecaps | 1.16–2.21 | 19% · 20% · 61% | Win in line with xG for Vancouver Whitecaps |
| Nashville SC 3–0 Chicago Fire | 2.07–0.96 | 63% · 20% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Nashville SC |
| Portland Timbers 0–1 Atlanta United FC | 1.53–0.73 | 56% · 26% · 18% | Won against the xG: Atlanta United FC |
| Inter Miami 2–2 San Diego | 1.53–1.78 | 33% · 23% · 44% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.