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15 of 15 matches with xG: 50 goals from 54.4 xG (0.92 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Miami 2–0 New York City FC | 2.31–1.53 | 55% · 20% · 25% | Win in line with xG for Inter Miami |
| Columbus Crew 3–1 Charlotte | 3.86–0.74 | 90% · 7% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Columbus Crew |
| FC Cincinnati 2–3 New England Revolution | 1.96–1.69 | 45% · 22% · 34% | Close call, New England Revolution won |
| Toronto FC 3–3 Orlando City SC | 2.84–2.30 | 50% · 18% · 32% | Draw against the xG: Toronto FC had 50% |
| CF Montreal 0–3 Atlanta United FC | 0.48–2.13 | 7% · 17% · 76% | Win in line with xG for Atlanta United FC |
| DC United 2–1 New York Red Bulls | 1.26–3.00 | 13% · 15% · 73% | Won against the xG: DC United |
| FC Dallas 1–0 Seattle Sounders | 1.04–2.01 | 19% · 21% · 60% | Won against the xG: FC Dallas |
| Chicago Fire 1–3 Philadelphia Union | 0.87–2.24 | 13% · 18% · 68% | Win in line with xG for Philadelphia Union |
| St. Louis City SC 0–0 Vancouver Whitecaps | 0.75–0.83 | 30% · 36% · 35% | Draw in line with xG |
| Nashville SC 4–0 Sporting Kansas City | 4.23–0.63 | 93% · 5% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Nashville SC |
| Colorado Rapids 2–2 Minnesota United FC | 2.09–1.55 | 50% · 21% · 29% | Draw against the xG: Colorado Rapids had 50% |
| Real Salt Lake 1–1 San Jose Earthquakes | 2.03–1.02 | 61% · 21% · 18% | Draw against the xG: Real Salt Lake had 61% |
| LAFC 3–1 Austin | 4.40–0.65 | 94% · 4% · 2% | Win in line with xG for LAFC |
| LA Galaxy 2–0 Portland Timbers | 1.77–0.70 | 63% · 23% · 14% | Win in line with xG for LA Galaxy |
| San Diego 3–3 Houston Dynamo | 2.57–0.93 | 73% · 16% · 11% | Draw against the xG: San Diego had 73% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.