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15 of 15 matches with xG: 44 goals from 41.4 xG (1.06 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union 2–2 Charlotte | 2.65–1.65 | 59% · 18% · 23% | Draw against the xG: Philadelphia Union had 59% |
| Minnesota United FC 3–2 St. Louis City SC | 3.46–1.70 | 71% · 14% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Minnesota United FC |
| Atlanta United FC 1–3 Inter Miami | 2.43–1.80 | 52% · 19% · 29% | Won against the xG: Inter Miami |
| New York City FC 1–1 LAFC | 0.78–0.58 | 37% · 39% · 25% | Draw in line with xG |
| New York Red Bulls 0–2 Toronto FC | 1.01–0.66 | 43% · 34% · 23% | Won against the xG: Toronto FC |
| Orlando City SC 4–1 DC United | 2.62–2.60 | 41% · 18% · 41% | Win in line with xG for Orlando City SC |
| New England Revolution 1–0 Chicago Fire | 0.27–1.02 | 10% · 36% · 55% | Won against the xG: New England Revolution |
| Austin 1–2 Vancouver Whitecaps | 0.75–0.91 | 28% · 34% · 37% | Win in line with xG for Vancouver Whitecaps |
| Houston Dynamo 2–2 FC Dallas | 1.38–2.58 | 19% · 18% · 63% | Draw against the xG: FC Dallas had 63% |
| Sporting Kansas City 1–3 Real Salt Lake | 0.79–1.05 | 27% · 32% · 41% | Win in line with xG for Real Salt Lake |
| LA Galaxy 2–2 San Diego | 0.55–2.07 | 9% · 18% · 73% | Draw against the xG: San Diego had 73% |
| Seattle Sounders 1–1 CF Montreal | 1.56–1.31 | 43% · 25% · 32% | Draw in line with xG |
| San Jose Earthquakes 1–1 Nashville SC | 0.81–0.43 | 42% · 40% · 18% | Draw in line with xG |
| Portland Timbers 0–0 Colorado Rapids | 0.66–1.01 | 23% · 34% · 43% | Draw in line with xG |
| FC Cincinnati 0–2 Columbus Crew | 1.98–0.36 | 76% · 18% · 6% | Won against the xG: Columbus Crew |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.