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15 of 15 matches with xG: 47 goals from 47.7 xG (0.99 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| CF Montreal 0–2 Nashville SC | 0.56–1.84 | 11% · 21% · 68% | Win in line with xG for Nashville SC |
| Columbus Crew 4–2 Toronto FC | 2.30–2.36 | 39% · 19% · 42% | Close call, Columbus Crew won |
| New York Red Bulls 2–0 Inter Miami | 3.39–0.87 | 84% · 10% · 6% | Win in line with xG for New York Red Bulls |
| Orlando City SC 2–2 New York City FC | 0.86–1.77 | 18% · 23% · 59% | Draw against the xG: New York City FC had 59% |
| DC United 0–2 FC Cincinnati | 0.40–0.99 | 15% · 36% · 50% | Win in line with xG for FC Cincinnati |
| Philadelphia Union 1–2 New England Revolution | 1.97–1.90 | 41% · 21% · 38% | Close call, New England Revolution won |
| Atlanta United FC 2–3 Chicago Fire | 0.85–1.59 | 20% · 25% · 55% | Win in line with xG for Chicago Fire |
| Houston Dynamo 0–0 Minnesota United FC | 0.77–1.36 | 21% · 28% · 51% | Draw against the xG: Minnesota United FC had 51% |
| FC Dallas 3–0 San Jose Earthquakes | 2.48–0.37 | 84% · 12% · 4% | Win in line with xG for FC Dallas |
| Sporting Kansas City 1–2 Austin | 1.53–1.80 | 33% · 23% · 44% | Win in line with xG for Austin |
| Colorado Rapids 1–0 Vancouver Whitecaps | 1.94–0.31 | 77% · 18% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Colorado Rapids |
| Real Salt Lake 3–0 St. Louis City SC | 3.64–0.17 | 96% · 4% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Real Salt Lake |
| San Diego 2–2 Seattle Sounders | 2.41–1.37 | 60% · 19% · 21% | Draw against the xG: San Diego had 60% |
| Portland Timbers 3–2 Charlotte | 2.86–0.90 | 78% · 13% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Portland Timbers |
| LAFC 2–2 LA Galaxy | 2.38–1.74 | 52% · 20% · 28% | Draw against the xG: LAFC had 52% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.