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14 of 14 matches with xG: 47 goals from 43.0 xG (1.09 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Miami 2–2 FC Cincinnati | 0.91–0.77 | 37% · 34% · 29% | Draw in line with xG |
| New York City FC 2–1 Atlanta United FC | 1.20–2.22 | 20% · 20% · 60% | Won against the xG: New York City FC |
| New England Revolution 3–2 New York Red Bulls | 1.96–2.47 | 31% · 19% · 50% | Close call, New England Revolution won |
| Charlotte 4–0 CF Montreal | 2.11–0.45 | 76% · 17% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Charlotte |
| Toronto FC 2–1 DC United | 1.56–1.30 | 43% · 25% · 32% | Win in line with xG for Toronto FC |
| Nashville SC 0–0 Philadelphia Union | 0.83–1.02 | 29% · 32% · 39% | Draw in line with xG |
| FC Dallas 0–2 Columbus Crew | 1.09–1.43 | 29% · 26% · 45% | Win in line with xG for Columbus Crew |
| Chicago Fire 2–2 Orlando City SC | 2.98–0.79 | 81% · 12% · 7% | Draw against the xG: Chicago Fire had 81% |
| Minnesota United FC 3–1 Sporting Kansas City | 1.86–0.78 | 63% · 22% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Minnesota United FC |
| Austin 1–2 Real Salt Lake | 0.92–2.21 | 14% · 19% · 67% | Win in line with xG for Real Salt Lake |
| St. Louis City SC 2–3 Portland Timbers | 1.98–1.20 | 55% · 22% · 23% | Won against the xG: Portland Timbers |
| Vancouver Whitecaps 4–1 San Diego | 2.88–2.54 | 47% · 17% · 36% | Win in line with xG for Vancouver Whitecaps |
| Seattle Sounders 0–1 Houston Dynamo | 1.92–0.36 | 75% · 19% · 6% | Won against the xG: Houston Dynamo |
| San Jose Earthquakes 2–2 Colorado Rapids | 2.39–0.82 | 72% · 17% · 11% | Draw against the xG: San Jose Earthquakes had 72% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.