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15 of 15 matches with xG: 41 goals from 34.7 xG (1.18 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York City FC 5–0 Orlando City SC | 2.52–0.16 | 89% · 10% · 1% | Win in line with xG for New York City FC |
| DC United 1–2 Inter Miami | 1.59–0.98 | 52% · 25% · 23% | Won against the xG: Inter Miami |
| Columbus Crew 0–0 Chicago Fire | 1.17–0.62 | 49% · 31% · 20% | Draw in line with xG |
| Philadelphia Union 0–1 San Jose Earthquakes | 1.08–0.75 | 43% · 32% · 25% | Won against the xG: San Jose Earthquakes |
| Atlanta United FC 2–3 Real Salt Lake | 1.16–1.07 | 38% · 29% · 33% | Close call, Real Salt Lake won |
| Charlotte 3–1 Austin | 2.91–0.10 | 93% · 6% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Charlotte |
| St. Louis City SC 0–1 Seattle Sounders | 0.66–0.67 | 30% · 40% · 31% | Close call, Seattle Sounders won |
| Nashville SC 3–1 Minnesota United FC | 1.75–0.92 | 57% · 23% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Nashville SC |
| Sporting Kansas City 0–1 San Diego | 0.36–2.02 | 6% · 17% · 77% | Win in line with xG for San Diego |
| Colorado Rapids 4–1 LA Galaxy | 1.88–1.09 | 56% · 22% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Colorado Rapids |
| LAFC 1–0 FC Dallas | 0.93–1.15 | 29% · 30% · 41% | Close call, LAFC won |
| Portland Timbers 1–4 Vancouver Whitecaps | 0.48–3.00 | 3% · 9% · 87% | Win in line with xG for Vancouver Whitecaps |
| New York Red Bulls 0–3 CF Montreal | 0.85–2.07 | 14% · 20% · 66% | Win in line with xG for CF Montreal |
| FC Cincinnati 0–1 Toronto FC | 0.76–0.69 | 33% · 37% · 29% | Close call, Toronto FC won |
| New England Revolution 0–2 Houston Dynamo | 0.40–0.87 | 16% · 39% · 45% | Win in line with xG for Houston Dynamo |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.