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15 of 15 matches with xG: 50 goals from 46.8 xG (1.07 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto FC 1–1 New York Red Bulls | 1.28–1.79 | 27% · 23% · 49% | Draw in line with xG |
| Atlanta United FC 3–1 Philadelphia Union | 2.58–2.24 | 47% · 19% · 35% | Win in line with xG for Atlanta United FC |
| Columbus Crew 0–1 Nashville SC | 0.22–1.16 | 7% · 32% · 61% | Win in line with xG for Nashville SC |
| Charlotte 0–0 Inter Miami | 1.08–0.98 | 37% · 30% · 32% | Draw in line with xG |
| Orlando City SC 2–1 CF Montreal | 2.57–1.56 | 59% · 18% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Orlando City SC |
| New York City FC 3–1 Colorado Rapids | 1.34–0.76 | 51% · 28% · 21% | Win in line with xG for New York City FC |
| FC Dallas 3–3 San Diego | 2.71–2.04 | 53% · 18% · 29% | Draw against the xG: FC Dallas had 53% |
| Chicago Fire 1–2 DC United | 1.93–1.61 | 46% · 22% · 33% | Close call, DC United won |
| Houston Dynamo 3–2 Portland Timbers | 1.20–2.37 | 18% · 19% · 63% | Won against the xG: Houston Dynamo |
| LA Galaxy 1–2 Sporting Kansas City | 2.03–0.73 | 68% · 20% · 12% | Won against the xG: Sporting Kansas City |
| Real Salt Lake 2–1 Austin | 2.15–0.61 | 73% · 18% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Real Salt Lake |
| LAFC 2–0 St. Louis City SC | 0.82–1.15 | 26% · 31% · 43% | Won against the xG: LAFC |
| New England Revolution 6–1 FC Cincinnati | 1.49–1.09 | 46% · 26% · 28% | Win in line with xG for New England Revolution |
| Vancouver Whitecaps 6–0 Minnesota United FC | 4.08–1.07 | 87% · 8% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Vancouver Whitecaps |
| San Jose Earthquakes 0–1 Seattle Sounders | 1.67–0.51 | 66% · 23% · 11% | Won against the xG: Seattle Sounders |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.