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15 of 15 matches with xG: 53 goals from 43.2 xG (1.23 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto FC 2–1 Columbus Crew | 0.91–0.68 | 39% · 35% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Toronto FC |
| Philadelphia Union 1–2 Chicago Fire | 0.85–2.52 | 11% · 16% · 74% | Win in line with xG for Chicago Fire |
| Nashville SC 5–0 Orlando City SC | 3.23–0.56 | 88% · 9% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Nashville SC |
| Atlanta United FC 0–0 DC United | 0.26–0.16 | 20% · 68% · 12% | Draw in line with xG |
| Charlotte 6–1 New York Red Bulls | 2.55–2.61 | 40% · 18% · 42% | Close call, Charlotte won |
| FC Dallas 4–3 Houston Dynamo | 1.36–1.74 | 30% · 23% · 46% | Close call, FC Dallas won |
| Sporting Kansas City 1–4 Colorado Rapids | 0.74–4.31 | 2% · 5% · 93% | Win in line with xG for Colorado Rapids |
| St. Louis City SC 3–1 New England Revolution | 1.12–1.21 | 34% · 28% · 38% | Close call, St. Louis City SC won |
| Austin 0–0 LAFC | 0.98–1.11 | 32% · 30% · 38% | Draw in line with xG |
| Vancouver Whitecaps 0–1 San Jose Earthquakes | 0.98–0.66 | 42% · 34% · 24% | Won against the xG: San Jose Earthquakes |
| FC Cincinnati 4–3 CF Montreal | 1.58–2.05 | 30% · 21% · 49% | Won against the xG: FC Cincinnati |
| New York City FC 2–3 Inter Miami | 1.28–1.45 | 33% · 26% · 41% | Win in line with xG for Inter Miami |
| Minnesota United FC 0–0 Seattle Sounders | 0.97–0.64 | 42% · 34% · 23% | Draw in line with xG |
| Portland Timbers 1–1 LA Galaxy | 0.40–1.76 | 8% · 21% · 71% | Draw against the xG: LA Galaxy had 71% |
| San Diego 2–2 Real Salt Lake | 1.51–3.04 | 16% · 15% · 68% | Draw against the xG: Real Salt Lake had 68% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.