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15 of 15 matches with xG: 43 goals from 41.0 xG (1.05 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto FC 1–1 FC Cincinnati | 0.52–0.66 | 24% · 42% · 33% | Draw in line with xG |
| Austin 1–2 LA Galaxy | 0.68–0.73 | 29% · 38% · 32% | Close call, LA Galaxy won |
| CF Montreal 1–2 Philadelphia Union | 0.96–1.07 | 32% · 31% · 38% | Win in line with xG for Philadelphia Union |
| Portland Timbers 2–1 LAFC | 1.52–1.03 | 49% · 26% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Portland Timbers |
| Inter Miami 2–2 New York Red Bulls | 2.55–1.33 | 64% · 18% · 18% | Draw against the xG: Inter Miami had 64% |
| Vancouver Whitecaps 2–0 New York City FC | 3.34–0.63 | 88% · 9% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Vancouver Whitecaps |
| Charlotte 1–2 Nashville SC | 2.19–0.54 | 75% · 17% · 8% | Won against the xG: Nashville SC |
| New England Revolution 1–0 DC United | 0.80–0.99 | 28% · 33% · 39% | Close call, New England Revolution won |
| Chicago Fire 1–0 Atlanta United FC | 2.34–1.68 | 53% · 20% · 28% | Win in line with xG for Chicago Fire |
| FC Dallas 1–1 St. Louis City SC | 1.44–1.28 | 41% · 26% · 34% | Draw in line with xG |
| Sporting Kansas City 1–3 San Jose Earthquakes | 0.78–1.71 | 17% · 24% · 60% | Win in line with xG for San Jose Earthquakes |
| Colorado Rapids 6–2 Houston Dynamo | 2.72–2.61 | 43% · 18% · 39% | Win in line with xG for Colorado Rapids |
| San Diego 1–2 Minnesota United FC | 1.57–2.17 | 28% · 21% · 51% | Win in line with xG for Minnesota United FC |
| Columbus Crew 1–1 Orlando City SC | 1.18–0.61 | 50% · 31% · 19% | Draw in line with xG |
| Seattle Sounders 2–0 Real Salt Lake | 0.91–0.43 | 46% · 37% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Seattle Sounders |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.