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15 of 15 matches with xG: 56 goals from 49.3 xG (1.14 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vancouver Whitecaps 3–0 Sporting Kansas City | 3.17–0.13 | 94% · 5% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Vancouver Whitecaps |
| Toronto FC 3–3 Austin | 3.05–1.49 | 69% · 15% · 16% | Draw against the xG: Toronto FC had 69% |
| CF Montreal 4–1 New York Red Bulls | 2.90–1.00 | 76% · 14% · 10% | Win in line with xG for CF Montreal |
| Colorado Rapids 2–3 Inter Miami | 1.69–1.18 | 49% · 24% · 27% | Won against the xG: Inter Miami |
| Atlanta United FC 0–2 Nashville SC | 0.62–2.17 | 9% · 18% · 73% | Win in line with xG for Nashville SC |
| FC Cincinnati 3–3 Chicago Fire | 4.12–1.75 | 78% · 11% · 11% | Draw against the xG: FC Cincinnati had 78% |
| New England Revolution 2–1 Columbus Crew | 1.23–0.95 | 43% · 29% · 28% | Win in line with xG for New England Revolution |
| Philadelphia Union 0–0 DC United | 1.27–0.66 | 51% · 29% · 19% | Draw against the xG: Philadelphia Union had 51% |
| New York City FC 1–2 Charlotte | 1.76–1.04 | 54% · 23% · 22% | Won against the xG: Charlotte |
| Orlando City SC 0–1 Houston Dynamo | 1.20–1.26 | 35% · 27% · 38% | Win in line with xG for Houston Dynamo |
| FC Dallas 2–2 LA Galaxy | 1.90–0.85 | 62% · 22% · 16% | Draw against the xG: FC Dallas had 62% |
| Minnesota United FC 2–0 Portland Timbers | 2.45–1.54 | 58% · 19% · 23% | Win in line with xG for Minnesota United FC |
| Seattle Sounders 4–1 St. Louis City SC | 1.71–0.60 | 64% · 23% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Seattle Sounders |
| Real Salt Lake 4–2 San Diego | 3.27–1.90 | 65% · 15% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Real Salt Lake |
| LAFC 1–4 San Jose Earthquakes | 1.04–1.38 | 28% · 27% · 45% | Win in line with xG for San Jose Earthquakes |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.