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8 of 8 matches with xG: 20 goals from 21.1 xG (0.95 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charleroi 2–2 Genk | 0.92–0.65 | 40% · 35% · 25% | Draw in line with xG |
| Dender 0–1 Standard Liege | 1.54–0.74 | 56% · 26% · 18% | Won against the xG: Standard Liege |
| KVC Westerlo 2–1 RAAL La Louvière | 1.07–1.22 | 32% · 28% · 40% | Close call, KVC Westerlo won |
| Union Saint-Gilloise 2–0 Zulte Waregem | 1.26–0.93 | 44% · 29% · 27% | Win in line with xG for Union Saint-Gilloise |
| Club Brugge 2–1 Gent | 3.40–0.72 | 87% · 9% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Club Brugge |
| St. Truiden 1–0 KV Mechelen | 1.06–0.64 | 45% · 33% · 22% | Win in line with xG for St. Truiden |
| Antwerp 2–2 Anderlecht | 2.56–1.45 | 62% · 18% · 20% | Draw against the xG: Antwerp had 62% |
| OH Leuven 0–2 Cercle Brugge | 1.25–1.69 | 28% · 24% · 48% | Win in line with xG for Cercle Brugge |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.