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10 of 10 matches with xG: 32 goals from 26.1 xG (1.23 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense 1–0 Santos | 2.13–0.17 | 84% · 14% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Fluminense |
| Internacional 1–2 Cuiaba | 1.01–1.03 | 34% · 30% · 35% | Win in line with xG for Cuiaba |
| Athletico Paranaense 3–3 Cruzeiro | 2.90–1.81 | 60% · 17% · 23% | Draw against the xG: Athletico Paranaense had 60% |
| Corinthians 3–1 Vasco da Gama | 1.36–1.71 | 31% · 24% · 46% | Close call, Corinthians won |
| Fortaleza EC 0–3 RB Bragantino | 0.86–2.47 | 11% · 16% · 73% | Win in line with xG for RB Bragantino |
| Atlético Mineiro 1–2 Flamengo | 0.87–1.78 | 18% · 23% · 59% | Win in line with xG for Flamengo |
| Sao Paulo 0–0 Bahia | 1.85–0.54 | 69% · 21% · 10% | Draw against the xG: Sao Paulo had 69% |
| Botafogo 4–1 Coritiba | 0.96–1.23 | 29% · 29% · 42% | Close call, Botafogo won |
| America Mineiro 1–4 Palmeiras | 1.40–0.92 | 48% · 27% · 25% | Won against the xG: Palmeiras |
| Goias 1–1 Gremio | 0.83–0.29 | 47% · 41% · 12% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.