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10 of 10 matches with xG: 15 goals from 21.0 xG (0.71 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goias 0–0 Internacional | 0.88–0.94 | 32% · 33% · 35% | Draw in line with xG |
| Athletico Paranaense 1–1 Atlético Mineiro | 1.87–0.40 | 73% · 20% · 7% | Draw against the xG: Athletico Paranaense had 73% |
| Botafogo 1–2 Flamengo | 0.98–0.79 | 39% · 33% · 28% | Close call, Flamengo won |
| Gremio 2–0 Cuiaba | 0.76–1.22 | 23% · 30% · 47% | Won against the xG: Gremio |
| Fluminense 1–0 Fortaleza EC | 0.73–0.92 | 27% · 34% · 38% | Close call, Fluminense won |
| Corinthians 0–0 Palmeiras | 0.66–0.68 | 30% · 39% · 31% | Draw in line with xG |
| Cruzeiro 0–0 RB Bragantino | 1.23–1.25 | 36% · 27% · 37% | Draw in line with xG |
| Bahia 1–1 Vasco da Gama | 1.91–1.11 | 56% · 22% · 22% | Draw against the xG: Bahia had 56% |
| America Mineiro 2–0 Santos | 1.50–1.02 | 48% · 26% · 26% | Win in line with xG for America Mineiro |
| Sao Paulo 2–1 Coritiba | 1.42–0.75 | 53% · 27% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Sao Paulo |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.