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10 of 10 matches with xG: 25 goals from 23.1 xG (1.08 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo 1–0 Bahia | 1.44–0.57 | 58% · 27% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Flamengo |
| Fortaleza EC 1–1 Gremio | 1.88–1.48 | 47% · 22% · 31% | Draw in line with xG |
| Sao Paulo 2–1 Corinthians | 2.03–0.19 | 82% · 15% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Sao Paulo |
| Cuiaba 3–0 Fluminense | 1.13–0.26 | 59% · 33% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Cuiaba |
| Internacional 0–2 Atlético Mineiro | 0.84–1.45 | 22% · 27% · 51% | Win in line with xG for Atlético Mineiro |
| Santos 4–1 Vasco da Gama | 2.19–0.93 | 66% · 19% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Santos |
| Cruzeiro 1–1 America Mineiro | 0.66–0.94 | 25% · 35% · 41% | Draw in line with xG |
| Coritiba 2–0 Athletico Paranaense | 0.57–0.46 | 31% · 46% · 23% | Close call, Coritiba won |
| RB Bragantino 2–1 Palmeiras | 3.02–1.51 | 68% · 15% · 17% | Win in line with xG for RB Bragantino |
| Botafogo 1–1 Goias | 1.05–0.50 | 49% · 34% · 17% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.