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10 of 10 matches with xG: 27 goals from 25.4 xG (1.06 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gremio 1–2 Athletico Paranaense | 1.58–0.87 | 54% · 25% · 21% | Won against the xG: Athletico Paranaense |
| Coritiba 0–3 Cuiaba | 1.21–0.41 | 57% · 31% · 13% | Won against the xG: Cuiaba |
| America Mineiro 1–2 Botafogo | 2.74–0.46 | 85% · 11% · 4% | Won against the xG: Botafogo |
| Vasco da Gama 1–0 Fortaleza EC | 1.81–0.72 | 63% · 22% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Vasco da Gama |
| Goias 2–0 Sao Paulo | 0.51–0.49 | 27% · 47% · 26% | Close call, Goias won |
| Bahia 1–0 Internacional | 1.93–0.58 | 70% · 20% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Bahia |
| Palmeiras 0–2 Atlético Mineiro | 0.76–0.96 | 28% · 34% · 39% | Win in line with xG for Atlético Mineiro |
| Cruzeiro 0–2 Flamengo | 0.31–1.87 | 5% · 19% · 76% | Win in line with xG for Flamengo |
| Santos 1–3 RB Bragantino | 1.86–2.52 | 29% · 19% · 53% | Win in line with xG for RB Bragantino |
| Fluminense 3–3 Corinthians | 1.74–2.04 | 34% · 21% · 45% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.