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10 of 10 matches with xG: 26 goals from 27.9 xG (0.93 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras 1–0 Bahia | 1.73–0.16 | 77% · 20% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Palmeiras |
| America Mineiro 3–4 Gremio | 2.38–2.09 | 46% · 19% · 35% | Close call, Gremio won |
| Atlético Mineiro 2–0 Fluminense | 1.20–1.12 | 38% · 28% · 34% | Win in line with xG for Atlético Mineiro |
| Goias 1–1 Vasco da Gama | 1.15–0.90 | 41% · 30% · 29% | Draw in line with xG |
| Athletico Paranaense 1–1 Sao Paulo | 1.16–0.57 | 50% · 32% · 18% | Draw against the xG: Athletico Paranaense had 50% |
| Corinthians 1–1 Santos | 1.25–1.29 | 36% · 27% · 38% | Draw in line with xG |
| Internacional 3–4 Coritiba | 2.68–2.71 | 41% · 18% · 42% | Win in line with xG for Coritiba |
| Botafogo 0–1 Cuiaba | 1.84–1.03 | 56% · 23% · 21% | Won against the xG: Cuiaba |
| Fortaleza EC 0–1 Cruzeiro | 1.32–0.84 | 48% · 28% · 24% | Won against the xG: Cruzeiro |
| Flamengo 1–0 RB Bragantino | 1.21–1.24 | 36% · 27% · 37% | Close call, Flamengo won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.