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10 of 10 matches with xG: 26 goals from 24.6 xG (1.06 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia 1–0 Fluminense | 0.46–0.73 | 21% · 42% · 38% | Won against the xG: Bahia |
| Corinthians 1–0 Athletico Paranaense | 0.97–0.76 | 39% · 33% · 27% | Win in line with xG for Corinthians |
| Internacional 1–1 America Mineiro | 1.37–0.30 | 65% · 27% · 8% | Draw against the xG: Internacional had 65% |
| Flamengo 1–2 Santos | 1.03–0.58 | 46% · 34% · 20% | Won against the xG: Santos |
| Coritiba 1–2 Gremio | 1.41–1.52 | 35% · 25% · 40% | Win in line with xG for Gremio |
| Botafogo 3–4 Palmeiras | 2.95–1.67 | 64% · 16% · 20% | Won against the xG: Palmeiras |
| Atlético Mineiro 3–1 Fortaleza EC | 2.27–0.43 | 79% · 15% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Atlético Mineiro |
| Cuiaba 0–2 Vasco da Gama | 0.57–1.50 | 14% · 26% · 60% | Win in line with xG for Vasco da Gama |
| Goias 0–2 RB Bragantino | 1.44–3.06 | 15% · 15% · 70% | Win in line with xG for RB Bragantino |
| Sao Paulo 1–0 Cruzeiro | 0.68–0.87 | 27% · 36% · 38% | Close call, Sao Paulo won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.