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10 of 10 matches with xG: 13 goals from 15.3 xG (0.85 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gremio 1–0 Bahia | 0.46–0.94 | 17% · 37% · 46% | Won against the xG: Gremio |
| America Mineiro 1–1 Atlético Mineiro | 1.45–1.00 | 47% · 26% · 26% | Draw in line with xG |
| Palmeiras 1–0 Athletico Paranaense | 1.49–0.45 | 63% · 26% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Palmeiras |
| RB Bragantino 1–0 Corinthians | 0.96–0.27 | 52% · 37% · 10% | Win in line with xG for RB Bragantino |
| Cruzeiro 1–2 Internacional | 1.43–0.57 | 58% · 27% · 15% | Won against the xG: Internacional |
| Fortaleza EC 0–2 Flamengo | 0.85–0.77 | 35% · 35% · 30% | Close call, Flamengo won |
| Coritiba 0–1 Goias | 0.33–1.69 | 7% · 22% · 72% | Win in line with xG for Goias |
| Vasco da Gama 1–0 Botafogo | 0.45–0.40 | 26% · 51% · 23% | Close call, Vasco da Gama won |
| Santos 0–0 Cuiaba | 0.10–0.45 | 6% · 60% · 33% | Draw in line with xG |
| Fluminense 1–0 Sao Paulo | 1.17–0.10 | 65% · 31% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Fluminense |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.