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10 of 10 matches with xG: 23 goals from 24.0 xG (0.96 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia 1–1 Goias | 2.40–1.03 | 68% · 18% · 15% | Draw against the xG: Bahia had 68% |
| Botafogo 1–0 Fluminense | 1.66–0.93 | 55% · 24% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Botafogo |
| Sao Paulo 4–2 Vasco da Gama | 2.39–0.99 | 68% · 18% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Sao Paulo |
| RB Bragantino 2–0 Athletico Paranaense | 1.57–0.96 | 52% · 25% · 23% | Win in line with xG for RB Bragantino |
| Coritiba 1–2 Atlético Mineiro | 1.05–1.50 | 27% · 26% · 48% | Win in line with xG for Atlético Mineiro |
| America Mineiro 2–1 Fortaleza EC | 0.52–1.13 | 17% · 32% · 51% | Won against the xG: America Mineiro |
| Santos 0–0 Palmeiras | 0.45–0.50 | 24% · 48% · 28% | Draw in line with xG |
| Flamengo 1–0 Corinthians | 0.63–1.04 | 22% · 33% · 45% | Won against the xG: Flamengo |
| Gremio 3–1 Internacional | 1.23–1.46 | 32% · 26% · 42% | Close call, Gremio won |
| Cruzeiro 0–1 Cuiaba | 1.22–1.30 | 35% · 27% · 38% | Win in line with xG for Cuiaba |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.