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10 of 10 matches with xG: 25 goals from 26.2 xG (0.95 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cruzeiro 2–0 Athletico Paranaense | 1.94–0.69 | 67% · 21% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Cruzeiro |
| Botafogo 2–1 RB Bragantino | 0.55–1.49 | 14% · 26% · 60% | Won against the xG: Botafogo |
| Corinthians 1–1 Cuiaba | 1.13–1.68 | 26% · 24% · 50% | Draw against the xG: Cuiaba had 50% |
| Atletico Goianiense 1–1 Gremio | 1.69–0.45 | 68% · 23% · 9% | Draw against the xG: Atletico Goianiense had 68% |
| Juventude 2–1 Flamengo | 2.45–1.63 | 56% · 19% · 25% | Win in line with xG for Juventude |
| Internacional 1–2 Atlético Mineiro | 1.68–1.53 | 42% · 23% · 35% | Close call, Atlético Mineiro won |
| Bahia 2–1 Vasco da Gama | 2.48–1.84 | 52% · 19% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Bahia |
| Fortaleza EC 3–0 Palmeiras | 1.02–1.20 | 31% · 29% · 40% | Close call, Fortaleza EC won |
| Fluminense 0–1 Vitoria | 0.34–0.46 | 20% · 52% · 28% | Close call, Vitoria won |
| Sao Paulo 2–1 Criciuma | 0.47–1.48 | 12% · 26% · 62% | Won against the xG: Sao Paulo |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.