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10 of 10 matches with xG: 22 goals from 18.3 xG (1.20 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vasco da Gama 1–1 Botafogo | 0.46–0.49 | 25% · 48% · 27% | Draw in line with xG |
| Cuiaba 1–1 RB Bragantino | 0.25–0.32 | 17% · 61% · 22% | Draw in line with xG |
| Atlético Mineiro 1–1 Atletico Goianiense | 0.75–1.15 | 24% · 31% · 45% | Draw in line with xG |
| Gremio 1–0 Fluminense | 1.05–0.50 | 49% · 34% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Gremio |
| Sao Paulo 3–1 Bahia | 1.21–1.04 | 40% · 29% · 31% | Win in line with xG for Sao Paulo |
| Fortaleza EC 2–1 Juventude | 2.84–1.12 | 73% · 15% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Fortaleza EC |
| Vitoria 0–1 Athletico Paranaense | 1.07–0.95 | 38% · 31% · 32% | Close call, Athletico Paranaense won |
| Flamengo 2–1 Cruzeiro | 0.57–0.63 | 27% · 42% · 31% | Close call, Flamengo won |
| Criciuma 1–1 Internacional | 0.87–1.16 | 27% · 30% · 42% | Draw in line with xG |
| Palmeiras 2–0 Corinthians | 1.02–0.86 | 38% · 32% · 30% | Win in line with xG for Palmeiras |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.