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10 of 10 matches with xG: 32 goals from 26.8 xG (1.19 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cuiaba 1–2 Botafogo | 1.57–0.79 | 56% · 25% · 19% | Won against the xG: Botafogo |
| Vasco da Gama 2–0 Fortaleza EC | 1.82–0.48 | 70% · 21% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Vasco da Gama |
| Criciuma 1–0 Cruzeiro | 1.59–1.08 | 49% · 25% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Criciuma |
| Atlético Mineiro 2–4 Flamengo | 2.39–2.13 | 45% · 19% · 36% | Close call, Flamengo won |
| RB Bragantino 3–1 Atletico Goianiense | 1.50–0.67 | 57% · 26% · 17% | Win in line with xG for RB Bragantino |
| Athletico Paranaense 1–2 Sao Paulo | 0.40–1.63 | 9% · 23% · 68% | Win in line with xG for Sao Paulo |
| Gremio 2–2 Palmeiras | 2.20–2.35 | 38% · 19% · 43% | Draw in line with xG |
| Bahia 2–0 Juventude | 1.86–0.65 | 66% · 21% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Bahia |
| Fluminense 1–1 Internacional | 0.34–0.76 | 15% · 42% · 42% | Draw in line with xG |
| Corinthians 3–2 Vitoria | 0.66–1.92 | 12% · 21% · 67% | Won against the xG: Corinthians |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.