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9 of 10 matches with xG: 19 goals from 20.4 xG (0.93 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cruzeiro 2–0 Juventude | 2.47–0.87 | 72% · 16% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Cruzeiro |
| Sao Paulo 2–2 Botafogo | 2.03–1.71 | 46% · 21% · 33% | Draw in line with xG |
| Vitoria 1–2 Flamengo | 1.44–1.03 | 47% · 26% · 27% | Won against the xG: Flamengo |
| Fluminense 1–0 Palmeiras | 0.95–0.13 | 57% · 38% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Fluminense |
| Atletico Goianiense 1–1 Bahia | 1.07–0.85 | 40% · 31% · 28% | Draw in line with xG |
| Corinthians 2–2 Gremio | 1.62–0.95 | 53% · 25% · 22% | Draw against the xG: Corinthians had 53% |
| Criciuma 1–0 RB Bragantino | 0.84–1.11 | 27% · 31% · 42% | Close call, Criciuma won |
| Vasco da Gama 1–0 Cuiaba | 0.83–0.60 | 38% · 37% · 24% | Win in line with xG for Vasco da Gama |
| Athletico Paranaense 1–0 Atlético Mineiro | 1.46–0.42 | 63% · 26% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Athletico Paranaense |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.