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10 of 10 matches with xG: 19 goals from 18.0 xG (1.05 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia 2–1 Fluminense | 1.08–0.37 | 54% · 34% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Bahia |
| Gremio 2–0 Athletico Paranaense | 1.13–0.17 | 62% · 33% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Gremio |
| RB Bragantino 2–1 Vasco da Gama | 0.95–1.19 | 29% · 29% · 41% | Close call, RB Bragantino won |
| Atlético Mineiro 1–1 Criciuma | 1.04–0.34 | 53% · 35% · 12% | Draw against the xG: Atlético Mineiro had 53% |
| Palmeiras 0–1 Internacional | 1.45–1.12 | 45% · 26% · 29% | Won against the xG: Internacional |
| Fortaleza EC 1–1 Cruzeiro | 0.64–0.82 | 26% · 37% · 37% | Draw in line with xG |
| Juventude 2–0 Corinthians | 1.63–1.16 | 48% · 25% · 27% | Win in line with xG for Juventude |
| Flamengo 2–1 Sao Paulo | 1.30–0.69 | 51% · 29% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Flamengo |
| Botafogo 1–0 Atletico Goianiense | 0.66–0.89 | 26% · 36% · 39% | Close call, Botafogo won |
| Cuiaba 0–0 Vitoria | 0.42–0.96 | 16% · 36% · 48% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.