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10 of 10 matches with xG: 27 goals from 29.4 xG (0.92 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gremio 0–2 Bahia | 1.23–1.73 | 27% · 24% · 49% | Win in line with xG for Bahia |
| Atlético Mineiro 1–1 Cuiaba | 1.87–1.27 | 51% · 23% · 26% | Draw against the xG: Atlético Mineiro had 51% |
| RB Bragantino 1–2 Fortaleza EC | 2.24–1.97 | 45% · 20% · 35% | Close call, Fortaleza EC won |
| Fluminense 0–0 Corinthians | 0.57–1.07 | 19% · 33% · 47% | Draw in line with xG |
| Palmeiras 2–1 Sao Paulo | 2.17–0.62 | 73% · 18% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Palmeiras |
| Atletico Goianiense 1–0 Internacional | 0.71–1.96 | 13% · 20% · 67% | Won against the xG: Atletico Goianiense |
| Criciuma 2–2 Vasco da Gama | 1.02–1.42 | 27% · 27% · 46% | Draw in line with xG |
| Botafogo 4–1 Flamengo | 3.30–0.82 | 84% · 10% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Botafogo |
| Athletico Paranaense 1–2 Juventude | 1.66–1.13 | 50% · 24% · 26% | Won against the xG: Juventude |
| Vitoria 2–2 Cruzeiro | 1.41–1.23 | 41% · 26% · 33% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.