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10 of 10 matches with xG: 33 goals from 25.8 xG (1.28 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gremio 3–1 Atletico Goianiense | 1.97–1.46 | 50% · 22% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Gremio |
| Vitoria 2–1 Fluminense | 1.40–0.62 | 56% · 28% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Vitoria |
| Flamengo 4–2 Juventude | 2.53–0.62 | 79% · 14% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Flamengo |
| Palmeiras 2–2 Fortaleza EC | 3.72–0.79 | 88% · 8% · 4% | Draw against the xG: Palmeiras had 88% |
| Athletico Paranaense 3–0 Cruzeiro | 1.39–0.12 | 71% · 26% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Athletico Paranaense |
| Atlético Mineiro 1–3 Internacional | 1.13–1.62 | 27% · 25% · 49% | Win in line with xG for Internacional |
| RB Bragantino 0–1 Botafogo | 0.15–1.31 | 4% · 28% · 68% | Win in line with xG for Botafogo |
| Criciuma 1–1 Sao Paulo | 0.72–0.81 | 29% · 36% · 34% | Draw in line with xG |
| Cuiaba 0–1 Corinthians | 0.38–1.26 | 11% · 30% · 59% | Win in line with xG for Corinthians |
| Vasco da Gama 3–2 Bahia | 1.86–1.91 | 38% · 21% · 40% | Close call, Vasco da Gama won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.