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10 of 10 matches with xG: 26 goals from 25.7 xG (1.01 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Recife 0–0 Bahia | 0.65–0.97 | 24% · 34% · 42% | Draw in line with xG |
| Mirassol 3–2 Vasco da Gama | 1.14–1.30 | 33% · 27% · 40% | Close call, Mirassol won |
| Fluminense 1–0 Gremio | 1.56–0.35 | 68% · 24% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Fluminense |
| Botafogo 0–2 Cruzeiro | 0.76–1.55 | 18% · 26% · 56% | Win in line with xG for Cruzeiro |
| Corinthians 1–1 Fortaleza EC | 1.98–1.04 | 59% · 21% · 19% | Draw against the xG: Corinthians had 59% |
| Atlético Mineiro 2–1 RB Bragantino | 3.06–0.72 | 83% · 11% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Atlético Mineiro |
| Ceara 1–1 Flamengo | 0.65–1.05 | 22% · 33% · 45% | Draw in line with xG |
| Vitoria 2–2 Palmeiras | 0.93–1.71 | 20% · 24% · 56% | Draw against the xG: Palmeiras had 56% |
| Internacional 1–2 Sao Paulo | 1.45–0.45 | 62% · 26% · 11% | Won against the xG: Sao Paulo |
| Santos 3–1 Juventude | 2.63–1.72 | 57% · 18% · 24% | Win in line with xG for Santos |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.