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10 of 10 matches with xG: 34 goals from 27.2 xG (1.25 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB Bragantino 4–2 Fluminense | 1.90–1.30 | 51% · 22% · 26% | Win in line with xG for RB Bragantino |
| Cruzeiro 2–1 Internacional | 1.13–0.21 | 60% · 33% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Cruzeiro |
| Gremio 0–0 Ceara | 1.86–1.74 | 41% · 22% · 37% | Draw in line with xG |
| Vasco da Gama 2–3 Corinthians | 1.53–2.08 | 28% · 21% · 50% | Win in line with xG for Corinthians |
| Bahia 2–0 Santos | 0.64–0.37 | 36% · 46% · 18% | Close call, Bahia won |
| Fortaleza EC 0–1 Mirassol | 1.63–0.82 | 57% · 25% · 19% | Won against the xG: Mirassol |
| Juventude 1–3 Botafogo | 0.95–1.67 | 21% · 24% · 54% | Win in line with xG for Botafogo |
| Sao Paulo 2–0 Atlético Mineiro | 1.64–0.10 | 77% · 21% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Sao Paulo |
| Palmeiras 3–0 Sport Recife | 3.21–0.35 | 91% · 7% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Palmeiras |
| Flamengo 8–0 Vitoria | 4.01–0.10 | 97% · 2% · 0% | Win in line with xG for Flamengo |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.