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10 of 10 matches with xG: 21 goals from 20.5 xG (1.03 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB Bragantino 1–0 Botafogo | 1.95–0.70 | 67% · 21% · 13% | Win in line with xG for RB Bragantino |
| Juventude 2–1 Ceara | 2.21–1.03 | 64% · 19% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Juventude |
| Palmeiras 2–0 Corinthians | 1.45–0.27 | 68% · 26% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Palmeiras |
| Vasco da Gama 3–1 Sport Recife | 1.49–1.14 | 45% · 26% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Vasco da Gama |
| Bahia 1–1 Mirassol | 1.81–0.61 | 66% · 22% · 12% | Draw against the xG: Bahia had 66% |
| Sao Paulo 1–1 Cruzeiro | 0.49–0.87 | 20% · 38% · 43% | Draw in line with xG |
| Gremio 0–2 Flamengo | 0.31–1.08 | 11% · 34% · 55% | Win in line with xG for Flamengo |
| Fluminense 1–0 Santos | 0.66–0.12 | 44% · 50% · 6% | Close call, Fluminense won |
| Fortaleza EC 0–0 Internacional | 0.56–0.35 | 33% · 49% · 18% | Draw in line with xG |
| Atlético Mineiro 2–2 Vitoria | 2.17–1.20 | 59% · 20% · 20% | Draw against the xG: Atlético Mineiro had 59% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.