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10 of 10 matches with xG: 33 goals from 31.1 xG (1.06 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Mineiro 1–1 Flamengo | 1.22–2.14 | 21% · 20% · 58% | Draw against the xG: Flamengo had 58% |
| Gremio 3–2 Palmeiras | 2.67–1.67 | 59% · 18% · 23% | Win in line with xG for Gremio |
| RB Bragantino 0–1 Fortaleza EC | 1.60–0.50 | 65% · 24% · 11% | Won against the xG: Fortaleza EC |
| Fluminense 6–0 Sao Paulo | 3.53–0.07 | 96% · 3% · 0% | Win in line with xG for Fluminense |
| Juventude 1–1 Bahia | 1.45–2.32 | 23% · 20% · 57% | Draw against the xG: Bahia had 57% |
| Vasco da Gama 5–1 Internacional | 2.21–1.06 | 63% · 19% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Vasco da Gama |
| Santos 3–0 Sport Recife | 1.15–0.40 | 55% · 32% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Santos |
| Vitoria 2–0 Mirassol | 2.54–2.09 | 49% · 19% · 33% | Win in line with xG for Vitoria |
| Ceara 1–1 Cruzeiro | 0.74–0.84 | 29% · 36% · 35% | Draw in line with xG |
| Corinthians 2–2 Botafogo | 2.26–0.66 | 74% · 17% · 9% | Draw against the xG: Corinthians had 74% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.