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10 of 10 matches with xG: 22 goals from 18.5 xG (1.19 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gremio 2–1 Sao Paulo | 1.62–1.37 | 43% · 24% · 32% | Win in line with xG for Gremio |
| Remo 2–2 Atlético Mineiro | 0.67–1.07 | 23% · 33% · 45% | Draw in line with xG |
| Coritiba 2–1 Chapecoense | 1.27–0.38 | 59% · 30% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Coritiba |
| Botafogo 1–1 Fluminense | 1.22–0.94 | 43% · 29% · 28% | Draw in line with xG |
| Cruzeiro 3–1 Mirassol | 0.68–1.31 | 19% · 29% · 52% | Won against the xG: Cruzeiro |
| Bahia 0–0 Vasco da Gama | 0.53–0.65 | 25% · 42% · 33% | Draw in line with xG |
| Palmeiras 0–0 Internacional | 1.19–0.24 | 61% · 31% · 7% | Draw against the xG: Palmeiras had 61% |
| RB Bragantino 0–2 Corinthians | 0.37–1.27 | 11% · 30% · 60% | Win in line with xG for Corinthians |
| Santos 0–2 Athletico Paranaense | 1.27–1.15 | 39% · 27% · 33% | Close call, Athletico Paranaense won |
| Flamengo 2–0 Vitoria | 1.13–0.18 | 61% · 33% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Flamengo |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.