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9 of 10 matches with xG: 31 goals from 29.7 xG (1.04 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense 3–2 Palmeiras | 2.72–1.68 | 60% · 18% · 23% | Win in line with xG for Fluminense |
| Athletico Paranaense 1–1 RB Bragantino | 2.63–1.25 | 67% · 17% · 16% | Draw against the xG: Athletico Paranaense had 67% |
| Chapecoense 3–3 Bahia | 1.25–2.43 | 18% · 18% · 63% | Draw against the xG: Bahia had 63% |
| Atlético Mineiro 3–0 Gremio | 2.52–0.41 | 83% · 12% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Atlético Mineiro |
| Vasco da Gama 0–3 Santos | 1.04–1.91 | 20% · 22% · 58% | Win in line with xG for Santos |
| Mirassol 1–5 Flamengo | 1.15–2.40 | 17% · 18% · 65% | Win in line with xG for Flamengo |
| Vitoria 1–0 Botafogo | 2.27–1.13 | 63% · 19% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Vitoria |
| Corinthians 1–2 Cruzeiro | 1.36–1.28 | 39% · 26% · 35% | Close call, Cruzeiro won |
| Internacional 1–1 Remo | 1.39–0.90 | 48% · 27% · 24% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.