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9 of 10 matches with xG: 27 goals from 24.9 xG (1.09 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Mineiro 3–1 Fluminense | 1.90–0.55 | 70% · 20% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Atlético Mineiro |
| Gremio 1–2 Vasco da Gama | 0.68–1.52 | 17% · 26% · 58% | Win in line with xG for Vasco da Gama |
| Chapecoense 1–2 Internacional | 0.70–0.34 | 40% · 44% · 16% | Won against the xG: Internacional |
| Palmeiras 2–0 Sao Paulo | 2.43–1.29 | 63% · 19% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Palmeiras |
| Botafogo 1–1 RB Bragantino | 1.39–0.80 | 51% · 28% · 22% | Draw against the xG: Botafogo had 51% |
| Santos 2–1 Cruzeiro | 1.98–1.70 | 45% · 21% · 34% | Win in line with xG for Santos |
| Mirassol 2–2 Vitoria | 1.46–1.64 | 34% · 24% · 42% | Draw in line with xG |
| Flamengo 2–1 Corinthians | 2.62–0.30 | 87% · 11% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Flamengo |
| Bahia 2–1 Remo | 2.20–1.35 | 57% · 20% · 23% | Win in line with xG for Bahia |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.