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9 of 10 matches with xG: 26 goals from 26.9 xG (0.97 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Mineiro 1–1 Chapecoense | 2.20–1.13 | 62% · 20% · 19% | Draw against the xG: Atlético Mineiro had 62% |
| Mirassol 2–0 Botafogo | 1.22–1.35 | 34% · 27% · 40% | Close call, Mirassol won |
| Remo 1–2 Santos | 0.84–0.90 | 32% · 34% · 35% | Win in line with xG for Santos |
| Vasco da Gama 5–0 Coritiba | 4.02–0.22 | 96% · 3% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Vasco da Gama |
| Gremio 0–0 Palmeiras | 0.97–2.49 | 13% · 17% · 71% | Draw against the xG: Palmeiras had 71% |
| Corinthians 1–3 Fluminense | 2.44–2.38 | 42% · 19% · 40% | Close call, Fluminense won |
| Vitoria 1–3 Cruzeiro | 0.50–0.66 | 24% · 43% · 34% | Close call, Cruzeiro won |
| Flamengo 2–1 RB Bragantino | 2.94–0.76 | 81% · 12% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Flamengo |
| Athletico Paranaense 2–1 Bahia | 0.64–1.19 | 20% · 31% · 49% | Won against the xG: Athletico Paranaense |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.