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9 of 10 matches with xG: 18 goals from 17.7 xG (1.02 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Remo 1–1 Internacional | 1.41–0.89 | 49% · 27% · 24% | Draw in line with xG |
| Coritiba 0–1 Sao Paulo | 0.85–1.32 | 24% · 28% · 48% | Win in line with xG for Sao Paulo |
| Cruzeiro 1–1 Corinthians | 0.71–0.22 | 44% · 46% · 10% | Draw in line with xG |
| Gremio 2–1 Atlético Mineiro | 0.92–0.41 | 47% · 37% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Gremio |
| Palmeiras 2–1 Fluminense | 1.28–1.18 | 39% · 27% · 34% | Win in line with xG for Palmeiras |
| Santos 2–1 Vasco da Gama | 0.87–1.39 | 24% · 27% · 49% | Won against the xG: Santos |
| Bahia 2–0 Chapecoense | 1.83–0.41 | 72% · 20% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Bahia |
| Botafogo 0–0 Vitoria | 1.38–0.39 | 62% · 28% · 10% | Draw against the xG: Botafogo had 62% |
| Flamengo 2–0 Mirassol | 1.75–0.49 | 68% · 22% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Flamengo |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.