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10 of 10 matches with xG: 23 goals from 22.1 xG (1.04 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia 2–0 RB Bragantino | 1.98–1.48 | 49% · 22% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Bahia |
| Palmeiras 2–1 Botafogo | 1.71–0.60 | 64% · 23% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Palmeiras |
| Athletico Paranaense 2–1 Cruzeiro | 1.20–1.23 | 36% · 27% · 37% | Close call, Athletico Paranaense won |
| Atlético Mineiro 1–0 Sao Paulo | 1.07–0.58 | 47% · 33% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Atlético Mineiro |
| Mirassol 0–1 Coritiba | 1.56–1.07 | 49% · 25% · 26% | Won against the xG: Coritiba |
| Santos 1–2 Internacional | 1.19–1.17 | 37% · 28% · 36% | Close call, Internacional won |
| Vasco da Gama 3–2 Fluminense | 0.99–0.73 | 41% · 33% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Vasco da Gama |
| Gremio 2–0 Vitoria | 1.56–0.59 | 61% · 25% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Gremio |
| Flamengo 3–0 Remo | 0.73–0.63 | 34% · 39% · 28% | Close call, Flamengo won |
| Chapecoense 0–0 Corinthians | 0.81–1.26 | 24% · 29% · 47% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.