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12 of 12 matches with xG: 45 goals from 37.5 xG (1.20 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City 0–1 Blackburn | 1.95–0.15 | 82% · 16% · 2% | Won against the xG: Blackburn |
| Burnley 2–2 Charlton | 1.08–2.13 | 18% · 20% · 61% | Draw against the xG: Charlton had 61% |
| Cardiff 5–1 Watford | 3.67–1.46 | 78% · 12% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Cardiff |
| Millwall 0–1 Swansea | 1.05–1.82 | 22% · 23% · 55% | Win in line with xG for Swansea |
| Wolves 1–3 Bolton | 2.23–1.62 | 52% · 20% · 28% | Won against the xG: Bolton |
| Wrexham 1–2 West Brom | 0.38–0.94 | 15% · 37% · 48% | Win in line with xG for West Brom |
| Birmingham 4–0 Preston | 2.24–0.49 | 77% · 16% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Birmingham |
| Stoke City 2–3 Middlesbrough | 0.65–2.57 | 7% · 14% · 79% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
| Norwich 0–1 Southampton | 1.18–2.10 | 21% · 21% · 58% | Win in line with xG for Southampton |
| Portsmouth 3–2 Sheffield Utd | 2.01–1.80 | 44% · 21% · 35% | Win in line with xG for Portsmouth |
| QPR 4–1 Derby | 1.52–0.86 | 53% · 26% · 21% | Win in line with xG for QPR |
| Lincoln 0–6 West Ham | 0.39–3.23 | 2% · 7% · 91% | Win in line with xG for West Ham |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.