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12 of 12 matches with xG: 30 goals from 34.0 xG (0.88 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley 1–2 Wolves | 1.07–2.02 | 19% · 21% · 59% | Win in line with xG for Wolves |
| Middlesbrough 2–2 Cardiff | 2.78–0.91 | 76% · 14% · 10% | Draw against the xG: Middlesbrough had 76% |
| Millwall 2–2 Lincoln | 1.87–0.75 | 64% · 22% · 14% | Draw against the xG: Millwall had 64% |
| Watford 2–0 Charlton | 2.87–1.31 | 70% · 16% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Watford |
| Birmingham 3–0 QPR | 1.30–1.15 | 40% · 27% · 33% | Win in line with xG for Birmingham |
| Bristol City 0–1 Sheffield Utd | 0.67–1.41 | 18% · 27% · 55% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Utd |
| Derby 0–1 Stoke City | 0.99–0.59 | 44% · 35% · 21% | Won against the xG: Stoke City |
| Norwich 0–1 Portsmouth | 0.37–1.25 | 11% · 30% · 59% | Win in line with xG for Portsmouth |
| Southampton 0–0 Bolton | 1.91–1.24 | 53% · 22% · 25% | Draw against the xG: Southampton had 53% |
| Swansea 0–1 West Ham | 1.05–1.15 | 33% · 29% · 38% | Win in line with xG for West Ham |
| West Brom 3–2 Blackburn | 3.72–0.84 | 88% · 8% · 4% | Win in line with xG for West Brom |
| Wrexham 4–1 Preston | 1.97–0.79 | 65% · 21% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Wrexham |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.