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12 of 12 matches with xG: 36 goals from 38.3 xG (0.94 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton 1–5 Middlesbrough | 0.94–4.19 | 4% · 7% · 90% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
| Charlton 1–3 Norwich | 0.87–1.75 | 18% · 23% · 58% | Win in line with xG for Norwich |
| Portsmouth 2–1 Millwall | 0.91–0.73 | 38% · 35% · 28% | Win in line with xG for Portsmouth |
| Sheffield Utd 1–1 Derby | 2.55–1.15 | 68% · 17% · 15% | Draw against the xG: Sheffield Utd had 68% |
| Blackburn 2–0 Wrexham | 1.61–1.74 | 36% · 23% · 41% | Close call, Blackburn won |
| Cardiff 1–0 Birmingham | 2.40–0.91 | 70% · 17% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Cardiff |
| Lincoln 4–1 Burnley | 1.94–2.37 | 32% · 20% · 48% | Close call, Lincoln won |
| Preston 1–1 West Brom | 1.83–2.09 | 35% · 21% · 45% | Draw in line with xG |
| QPR 5–0 Swansea | 3.30–0.27 | 93% · 6% · 1% | Win in line with xG for QPR |
| Stoke City 0–0 Bristol City | 0.71–0.79 | 29% · 37% · 34% | Draw in line with xG |
| West Ham 2–3 Southampton | 1.60–1.61 | 38% · 23% · 39% | Win in line with xG for Southampton |
| Wolves 1–0 Watford | 1.88–0.15 | 80% · 17% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Wolves |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.