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12 of 12 matches with xG: 41 goals from 35.7 xG (1.15 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield Utd 1–0 Wrexham | 1.33–0.70 | 52% · 29% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Utd |
| Lincoln 1–3 Birmingham | 1.63–2.09 | 30% · 21% · 49% | Win in line with xG for Birmingham |
| Norwich 3–2 Watford | 1.19–1.00 | 40% · 29% · 31% | Win in line with xG for Norwich |
| Stoke City 2–0 Preston | 2.22–0.16 | 85% · 13% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Stoke City |
| Bolton 2–3 Bristol City | 1.41–3.36 | 12% · 13% · 75% | Win in line with xG for Bristol City |
| Burnley 0–0 Portsmouth | 1.97–0.31 | 78% · 17% · 5% | Draw against the xG: Burnley had 78% |
| Middlesbrough 3–0 Charlton | 1.79–0.46 | 70% · 21% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
| Millwall 4–1 Derby | 3.76–1.27 | 82% · 10% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Millwall |
| Southampton 4–1 QPR | 1.25–0.78 | 47% · 29% · 23% | Win in line with xG for Southampton |
| Swansea 4–0 Blackburn | 2.82–0.54 | 84% · 11% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Swansea |
| West Ham 1–3 West Brom | 0.95–2.08 | 16% · 20% · 63% | Win in line with xG for West Brom |
| Wolves 3–0 Cardiff | 1.66–0.96 | 54% · 24% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Wolves |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.