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12 of 12 matches with xG: 26 goals from 32.4 xG (0.80 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham 1–1 QPR | 1.44–1.27 | 41% · 26% · 33% | Draw in line with xG |
| Charlton 1–1 Bristol City | 1.78–1.47 | 45% · 23% · 32% | Draw in line with xG |
| Swansea 2–1 Norwich | 2.36–0.68 | 75% · 16% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Swansea |
| West Brom 0–1 Birmingham | 1.05–2.55 | 14% · 17% · 70% | Win in line with xG for Birmingham |
| Blackburn 2–1 Cardiff | 2.42–1.05 | 68% · 18% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Blackburn |
| Bolton 1–2 Stoke City | 3.13–0.74 | 84% · 11% · 6% | Won against the xG: Stoke City |
| Derby 1–1 Wrexham | 0.60–1.46 | 15% · 27% · 58% | Draw against the xG: Wrexham had 58% |
| Middlesbrough 1–0 Wolves | 0.90–0.68 | 39% · 35% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
| Preston 0–1 Millwall | 0.65–1.09 | 22% · 32% · 46% | Win in line with xG for Millwall |
| Sheffield Utd 3–0 Lincoln | 0.68–1.39 | 18% · 28% · 54% | Won against the xG: Sheffield Utd |
| Watford 0–4 Burnley | 0.64–1.94 | 11% · 20% · 68% | Win in line with xG for Burnley |
| Southampton 1–0 Portsmouth | 1.28–1.18 | 39% · 27% · 34% | Win in line with xG for Southampton |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.