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12 of 12 matches with xG: 40 goals from 33.0 xG (1.21 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City 1–0 Watford | 1.56–0.52 | 63% · 25% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Bristol City |
| Cardiff 3–1 Charlton | 2.60–1.26 | 66% · 17% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Cardiff |
| Millwall 2–2 West Ham | 2.68–1.87 | 55% · 18% · 27% | Draw against the xG: Millwall had 55% |
| Stoke City 2–1 Sheffield Utd | 0.65–0.36 | 37% · 45% · 18% | Close call, Stoke City won |
| Birmingham 2–2 Middlesbrough | 1.23–2.14 | 21% · 21% · 58% | Draw against the xG: Middlesbrough had 58% |
| Burnley 1–1 Derby | 0.45–1.75 | 9% · 22% · 69% | Draw against the xG: Derby had 69% |
| Lincoln 1–2 Swansea | 2.11–0.92 | 65% · 20% · 15% | Won against the xG: Swansea |
| Portsmouth 2–2 Blackburn | 1.60–0.59 | 62% · 25% · 13% | Draw against the xG: Portsmouth had 62% |
| QPR 2–2 Preston | 2.54–1.50 | 60% · 18% · 22% | Draw against the xG: QPR had 60% |
| Wrexham 2–1 Southampton | 0.54–2.08 | 8% · 18% · 74% | Won against the xG: Wrexham |
| Wolves 1–0 West Brom | 1.95–0.29 | 78% · 18% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Wolves |
| Norwich 3–4 Bolton | 0.69–1.10 | 23% · 32% · 45% | Win in line with xG for Bolton |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.