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12 of 12 matches with xG: 37 goals from 33.7 xG (1.10 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham 6–0 Wrexham | 2.96–0.44 | 87% · 9% · 3% | Win in line with xG for West Ham |
| Bolton 1–0 Cardiff | 0.48–1.79 | 9% · 21% · 69% | Won against the xG: Bolton |
| Derby 1–2 Birmingham | 1.11–3.17 | 10% · 13% · 78% | Win in line with xG for Birmingham |
| West Brom 1–1 QPR | 1.22–0.62 | 51% · 30% · 19% | Draw against the xG: West Brom had 51% |
| Blackburn 3–1 Millwall | 1.23–1.67 | 28% · 24% · 48% | Won against the xG: Blackburn |
| Charlton 0–0 Portsmouth | 0.82–0.40 | 43% · 40% · 17% | Draw in line with xG |
| Middlesbrough 4–3 Norwich | 2.38–1.76 | 52% · 20% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
| Preston 0–1 Lincoln | 0.58–0.66 | 27% · 41% · 32% | Close call, Lincoln won |
| Southampton 4–1 Bristol City | 1.71–2.24 | 30% · 20% · 50% | Won against the xG: Southampton |
| Swansea 3–1 Burnley | 2.63–1.73 | 57% · 18% · 25% | Win in line with xG for Swansea |
| Watford 1–2 Stoke City | 0.39–1.50 | 9% · 25% · 65% | Win in line with xG for Stoke City |
| Sheffield Utd 0–1 Wolves | 0.63–1.57 | 15% · 25% · 60% | Win in line with xG for Wolves |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.