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12 of 12 matches with xG: 30 goals from 31.5 xG (0.95 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn 1–2 Sheffield Utd | 1.60–0.47 | 65% · 24% · 11% | Won against the xG: Sheffield Utd |
| Cardiff 1–1 Stoke City | 2.92–0.75 | 81% · 12% · 7% | Draw against the xG: Cardiff had 81% |
| Southampton 3–1 Swansea | 1.44–1.22 | 42% · 26% · 32% | Win in line with xG for Southampton |
| Watford 2–1 Preston | 1.26–2.44 | 18% · 18% · 63% | Won against the xG: Watford |
| Wrexham 1–1 Burnley | 1.28–1.50 | 32% · 25% · 42% | Draw in line with xG |
| Bolton 2–3 West Ham | 1.56–2.22 | 27% · 20% · 53% | Win in line with xG for West Ham |
| Derby 0–1 West Brom | 1.27–0.38 | 59% · 30% · 11% | Won against the xG: West Brom |
| Norwich 2–1 Birmingham | 1.01–1.63 | 23% · 25% · 52% | Won against the xG: Norwich |
| Charlton 0–0 QPR | 0.48–1.10 | 16% · 33% · 51% | Draw against the xG: QPR had 51% |
| Bristol City 0–1 Lincoln | 1.53–0.53 | 62% · 25% · 13% | Won against the xG: Lincoln |
| Middlesbrough 2–2 Millwall | 1.52–1.69 | 35% · 23% · 42% | Draw in line with xG |
| Wolves 1–1 Portsmouth | 0.95–0.78 | 38% · 34% · 29% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.