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12 of 12 matches with xG: 25 goals from 29.5 xG (0.85 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield Wednesday 0–1 Bradford | 1.36–0.62 | 55% · 28% · 17% | Won against the xG: Bradford |
| Doncaster 0–0 Barnsley | 1.38–0.44 | 61% · 28% · 12% | Draw against the xG: Doncaster had 61% |
| Luton 2–2 Notts County | 1.93–0.79 | 64% · 21% · 15% | Draw against the xG: Luton had 64% |
| AFC Wimbledon 0–0 Reading | 0.34–0.90 | 13% · 38% · 48% | Draw in line with xG |
| Bromley 1–1 Cambridge United | 0.61–0.76 | 26% · 39% · 35% | Draw in line with xG |
| Leicester 1–2 Burton Albion | 1.10–0.71 | 45% · 32% · 24% | Won against the xG: Burton Albion |
| Milton Keynes Dons 1–1 Huddersfield | 1.33–2.57 | 18% · 18% · 64% | Draw against the xG: Huddersfield had 64% |
| Peterborough 2–1 Mansfield Town | 1.49–1.37 | 40% · 25% · 35% | Win in line with xG for Peterborough |
| Stevenage 1–2 Oxford United | 1.00–1.24 | 30% · 29% · 42% | Win in line with xG for Oxford United |
| Stockport County 1–2 Blackpool | 2.91–1.68 | 63% · 17% · 20% | Won against the xG: Blackpool |
| Wigan 0–2 Leyton Orient | 1.36–0.94 | 47% · 28% · 26% | Won against the xG: Leyton Orient |
| Wycombe 1–1 Plymouth | 1.89–0.76 | 64% · 21% · 14% | Draw against the xG: Wycombe had 64% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.