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12 of 12 matches with xG: 45 goals from 34.6 xG (1.30 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackpool 4–0 Peterborough | 2.73–1.72 | 59% · 18% · 23% | Win in line with xG for Blackpool |
| Milton Keynes Dons 0–0 Leicester | 0.57–1.53 | 14% · 25% · 61% | Draw against the xG: Leicester had 61% |
| Cambridge United 1–2 Huddersfield | 1.22–1.13 | 38% · 28% · 34% | Close call, Huddersfield won |
| Leyton Orient 1–3 Barnsley | 0.73–1.99 | 13% · 20% · 67% | Win in line with xG for Barnsley |
| Notts County 2–1 Burton Albion | 2.29–0.11 | 87% · 12% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Notts County |
| Plymouth 2–0 Bradford | 1.16–0.90 | 42% · 30% · 28% | Win in line with xG for Plymouth |
| Sheffield Wednesday 7–2 Bromley | 4.52–1.50 | 85% · 8% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Wednesday |
| Stevenage 2–2 Doncaster | 0.47–0.65 | 22% · 43% · 34% | Draw in line with xG |
| Stockport County 5–1 Wycombe | 1.34–0.94 | 46% · 28% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Stockport County |
| AFC Wimbledon 1–0 Wigan | 0.72–2.99 | 6% · 11% · 83% | Won against the xG: AFC Wimbledon |
| Mansfield Town 5–2 Luton | 1.37–1.35 | 38% · 26% · 37% | Win in line with xG for Mansfield Town |
| Oxford United 2–0 Reading | 0.81–1.83 | 16% · 22% · 62% | Won against the xG: Oxford United |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.