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12 of 12 matches with xG: 38 goals from 38.1 xG (1.00 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bradford 1–2 Cambridge United | 2.15–0.99 | 64% · 20% · 16% | Won against the xG: Cambridge United |
| Bromley 0–5 Leyton Orient | 0.63–1.67 | 14% · 24% · 63% | Win in line with xG for Leyton Orient |
| Doncaster 1–1 Notts County | 1.12–0.85 | 42% · 31% · 28% | Draw in line with xG |
| Huddersfield 3–1 Oxford United | 3.65–1.01 | 85% · 9% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Huddersfield |
| Leicester 2–0 Plymouth | 1.49–1.15 | 45% · 26% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Leicester |
| Peterborough 0–0 Stevenage | 0.93–0.56 | 43% · 36% · 21% | Draw in line with xG |
| Wycombe 1–2 Sheffield Wednesday | 1.28–2.49 | 18% · 18% · 64% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Wednesday |
| Barnsley 2–1 Blackpool | 1.97–2.32 | 34% · 20% · 47% | Close call, Barnsley won |
| Burton Albion 4–1 AFC Wimbledon | 0.93–1.43 | 24% · 27% · 49% | Won against the xG: Burton Albion |
| Luton 2–0 Stockport County | 1.40–0.84 | 50% · 27% · 23% | Win in line with xG for Luton |
| Wigan 3–1 Milton Keynes Dons | 2.35–2.81 | 33% · 18% · 49% | Close call, Wigan won |
| Reading 5–0 Mansfield Town | 2.68–1.38 | 65% · 17% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Reading |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.