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12 of 12 matches with xG: 43 goals from 36.5 xG (1.18 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peterborough 1–2 Sheffield Wednesday | 2.24–0.96 | 66% · 19% · 15% | Won against the xG: Sheffield Wednesday |
| Wigan 0–4 Stockport County | 0.73–2.15 | 11% · 19% · 70% | Win in line with xG for Stockport County |
| Barnsley 1–5 Stevenage | 1.83–1.93 | 37% · 21% · 41% | Win in line with xG for Stevenage |
| Bradford 1–0 Mansfield Town | 1.03–0.48 | 49% · 34% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Bradford |
| Burton Albion 2–2 Cambridge United | 2.31–0.90 | 69% · 18% · 13% | Draw against the xG: Burton Albion had 69% |
| Doncaster 2–3 Plymouth | 2.33–2.61 | 36% · 18% · 46% | Win in line with xG for Plymouth |
| Huddersfield 1–1 Notts County | 1.41–1.24 | 41% · 26% · 33% | Draw in line with xG |
| Leicester 0–4 Oxford United | 1.03–2.31 | 15% · 19% · 66% | Win in line with xG for Oxford United |
| Luton 1–1 Leyton Orient | 2.21–0.56 | 75% · 17% · 8% | Draw against the xG: Luton had 75% |
| Reading 3–1 Blackpool | 3.50–0.51 | 91% · 7% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Reading |
| Wycombe 3–3 Milton Keynes Dons | 0.89–1.65 | 20% · 24% · 55% | Draw against the xG: Milton Keynes Dons had 55% |
| Bromley 0–2 AFC Wimbledon | 0.61–1.10 | 20% · 32% · 47% | Win in line with xG for AFC Wimbledon |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.