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12 of 12 matches with xG: 32 goals from 25.3 xG (1.27 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stevenage 2–1 Luton | 1.28–0.83 | 47% · 29% · 24% | Win in line with xG for Stevenage |
| Leyton Orient 2–3 Wycombe | 0.88–1.16 | 28% · 30% · 42% | Win in line with xG for Wycombe |
| Notts County 0–1 Bradford | 0.49–0.50 | 26% · 47% · 27% | Close call, Bradford won |
| AFC Wimbledon 1–0 Doncaster | 0.80–1.82 | 16% · 22% · 62% | Won against the xG: AFC Wimbledon |
| Blackpool 2–2 Bromley | 1.12–1.14 | 35% · 29% · 36% | Draw in line with xG |
| Cambridge United 2–1 Reading | 0.74–1.41 | 20% · 27% · 53% | Won against the xG: Cambridge United |
| Mansfield Town 0–0 Huddersfield | 0.88–1.49 | 22% · 26% · 52% | Draw against the xG: Huddersfield had 52% |
| Milton Keynes Dons 1–1 Peterborough | 1.15–1.29 | 33% · 27% · 40% | Draw in line with xG |
| Oxford United 3–0 Burton Albion | 1.27–0.47 | 57% · 30% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Oxford United |
| Plymouth 3–0 Barnsley | 0.51–0.79 | 22% · 39% · 39% | Won against the xG: Plymouth |
| Sheffield Wednesday 0–0 Wigan | 0.61–1.49 | 15% · 26% · 59% | Draw against the xG: Wigan had 59% |
| Stockport County 3–4 Leicester | 2.08–1.08 | 60% · 21% · 19% | Won against the xG: Leicester |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.