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12 of 12 matches with xG: 24 goals from 29.5 xG (0.81 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon 0–0 Milton Keynes Dons | 1.28–1.02 | 42% · 28% · 30% | Draw in line with xG |
| Barnsley 1–1 Leicester | 1.18–2.40 | 17% · 18% · 64% | Draw against the xG: Leicester had 64% |
| Burton Albion 2–2 Mansfield Town | 0.83–1.58 | 20% · 25% · 55% | Draw against the xG: Mansfield Town had 55% |
| Blackpool 2–4 Plymouth | 0.67–2.44 | 8% · 15% · 76% | Win in line with xG for Plymouth |
| Bromley 2–1 Huddersfield | 0.38–2.67 | 3% · 11% · 86% | Won against the xG: Bromley |
| Leyton Orient 1–0 Stevenage | 0.43–1.54 | 10% · 25% · 65% | Won against the xG: Leyton Orient |
| Luton 0–1 Bradford | 0.83–0.29 | 47% · 41% · 12% | Won against the xG: Bradford |
| Oxford United 1–1 Cambridge United | 0.88–1.06 | 30% · 31% · 39% | Draw in line with xG |
| Peterborough 0–2 Doncaster | 1.27–1.10 | 40% · 28% · 32% | Close call, Doncaster won |
| Reading 2–0 Notts County | 2.62–0.59 | 81% · 13% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Reading |
| Sheffield Wednesday 0–0 Stockport County | 0.93–1.41 | 25% · 27% · 48% | Draw in line with xG |
| Wigan 0–1 Wycombe | 0.41–1.66 | 9% · 23% · 69% | Win in line with xG for Wycombe |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.